Smof Investment Manager, LLC https://www.you-first.com Sat, 27 Feb 2021 00:13:27 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://www.you-first.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/favicon.jpg Smof Investment Manager, LLC https://www.you-first.com 32 32 BC Speculation Tax Declarations Due March 31st https://www.you-first.com/bc-speculation-tax-declarations-due-march-31st/ Sat, 27 Feb 2021 00:06:37 +0000 https://mammoth-seashore.flywheelsites.com/?p=8025 BC homeowners have begun receiving their Speculation & Vacancy Tax notices in the mail. The deadline to make your declaration is March 31st 2021. This is an annual filing requirement that homeowners are by this point well familiar, but for any new homeowners or those who require a refresher, please read on. Once you receive... Read More

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BC homeowners have begun receiving their Speculation & Vacancy Tax notices in the mail. The deadline to make your declaration is March 31st 2021. This is an annual filing requirement that homeowners are by this point well familiar, but for any new homeowners or those who require a refresher, please read on.

Once you receive your letter in the mail, go to the BC government website’s speculation tax page here.

On the right side of the webpage, click “Declare Now”.

The letter you received will include a Declaration Code and a Letter ID. You will require these to complete the declaration.

Note that joint owners must both file declarations.

It is always advisable to save a copy of your confirmation.

Weekly Update – By The Numbers

North America Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
Canada – S&P TSX Composite 18,060 -324 -1.76% 3.60%
USA – Dow Jones Industrial Average 30,932 -562 -1.78% 1.07%
USA – S&P 500 3,811 -96 -2.46% 1.46%
USA – Nasdaq 13,192 -682 -4.92% 2.36%
Gold Futures (USD) $1,733.00 -$50.10 -2.81% -8.71%
Crude Oil Futures (USD) $61.66 $2.65 4.49% 27.08%
CAD/USD Exchange Rate $0.7851 -$0.0076 -0.96% -0.10%
       
Europe / Asia Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
MSCI World Index 2,727 -79 -2.82% 1.38%
Switzerland – Euro Stoxx 50 3,636 -77 -2.07% 1.79%
England – FTSE 100 6,483 -141 -2.13% 0.34%
France – CAC 40 5,703 -71 -1.23% 2.74%
Germany – DAX Performance Index 13,786 -207 -1.48% 0.49%
Japan – Nikkei 225 28,966 -1,052 -3.50% 5.55%
China – Shanghai Composite Index 3,509 -187 -5.06% 1.04%
CAD/EURO Exchange Rate € 0.6499 -€ 0.0039 -0.60% 1.03%
Fixed Income Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
10-Year Bond Yield (in %) 1.4600 0.1150 8.55% 59.39%

 

 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, CNBC.com, Government of British Columbia

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Federal Government Announces Extended COVID-19 Benefit Period https://www.you-first.com/federal-government-announces-extended-covid-19-benefit-period/ Fri, 19 Feb 2021 23:51:01 +0000 https://mammoth-seashore.flywheelsites.com/?p=8011 On Friday, the Federal Government announced plans to extend the Canada Recovery Benefit and Canada Recovery Caregiving Benefit by an additional 12 weeks. The existing CRB Benefit of $500 per week remains and the maximum claim period will increase from the 26 weeks to 38 weeks. In addition, the federal sickness benefit will expand from... Read More

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On Friday, the Federal Government announced plans to extend the Canada Recovery Benefit and Canada Recovery Caregiving Benefit by an additional 12 weeks.

The existing CRB Benefit of $500 per week remains and the maximum claim period will increase from the 26 weeks to 38 weeks.

In addition, the federal sickness benefit will expand from two weeks to four weeks, allowing employees to remain at home in the event of illness or if they have to isolate due to COVID-19.

Finally, Employment Insurance eligibility is being nearly doubled, from 26 weeks to 50 weeks for any claims filed since September 2020.

These proposals aim to stave off benefit panic for those who are nearing the end of their benefit periods and remain out of work.

Weekly Update – By The Numbers

North America Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
Canada – S&P TSX Composite 18,384 -76 -0.41% 5.46%
USA – Dow Jones Industrial Average 31,494 36 0.11% 2.90%
USA – S&P 500 3,907 -28 -0.71% 4.02%
USA – Nasdaq 13,874 -221 -1.57% 7.65%
Gold Futures (USD) $1,783.10 -$39.10 -2.15% -6.07%
Crude Oil Futures (USD) $59.01 -$0.59 -0.99% 21.62%
CAD/USD Exchange Rate $0.7927 $0.0048 0.61% 0.87%
         
Europe / Asia Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
MSCI World Index 2,806 -13 -0.46% 4.31%
Switzerland – Euro Stoxx 50 3,713 17 0.46% 3.95%
England – FTSE 100 6,624 34 0.52% 2.52%
France – CAC 40 5,774 70 1.23% 4.02%
Germany – DAX Performance Index 13,993 -57 -0.41% 2.00%
Japan – Nikkei 225 30,018 498 1.69% 9.38%
China – Shanghai Composite Index 3,696 41 1.12% 6.42%
CAD/EURO Exchange Rate € 0.6538 € 0.0039 0.60% 1.63%
         
Fixed Income Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
10-Year Bond Yield (in %) 1.3450 0.1450 12.08% 46.83%

 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, CNBC.com

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Equity markets continue rising https://www.you-first.com/equity-markets-continue-rising/ Fri, 12 Feb 2021 23:46:40 +0000 https://mammoth-seashore.flywheelsites.com/?p=7960 Equity markets continue rising The New York S&P TSX Composite index has had a strong run over the last 2 weeks. It has posted daily gains in nine of the last 10 trading sessions and has risen 6.5% over that time and is up 5.89% year-to-date. The TSX closed Friday at an all-time high of 18,460.21.... Read More

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Equity markets continue rising

The New York S&P TSX Composite index has had a strong run over the last 2 weeks. It has posted daily gains in nine of the last 10 trading sessions and has risen 6.5% over that time and is up 5.89% year-to-date. The TSX closed Friday at an all-time high of 18,460.21.

The Nasdaq closed above 14,000 for the first time on Tuesday and hit an intra-day all-time high of 14,102.04 on Friday before closing at 14,095.47. Year-to-date the Nasdaq is up 9.37%, continuing its torrid pace.

The S&P 500 is up 4.77% year-to-date and continues its march toward the 4,000 mark. Friday saw the S&P 500 hit an all-time intra-day high of 3,937.23 before closing at 3,934.83.

Most major European and Asian markets – even London’s FTSE 100 – posted weekly gains and are all positive for 2021 year-to-date.

Working from home: calculating your workspace deduction percentage

We have had several clients reach out with questions around tax deductions for employment expenses incurred while working from home throughout COVID, and specifically, how to calculate the appropriate workspace percentage.

As a reminder, there are two options for claiming home expenses: the temporary flat rate method ($2 per day worked at home, up to $400 maximum) or the usual detailed method. You can read a more thorough breakdown of these options here.

When calculating your workspace at home, you must prorate your workspace versus total home space, but you must also prorate your work time spent in your workspace within the context of a full week’s worth of hours.

For example: Jim worked from home from March until December 2020. His home is 1,300 square feet and his workspace is his living room/dining room, which is 300 square feet in size.

The first step in calculating the percentage of home expenses is to prorate the workspace by the total home space. In this case, 300 / 1300 = ~23%.

Next, Jim must consider that he is only using that workspace for 40 hours per week (his normal work week). There are 168 hours in a week (7 days, 24 hours per day). The second calculation is to divide Jim’s 40 hours by 168, giving him 24%.

So for work, Jim uses 23% of his home, 24% of the time. Multiplying these two amounts, Jim’s deductible percentage of home expenses is ~5.5%.

Using the detailed method of calculating home expenses is not worthwhile unless Jim ends up with a tax saving greater than the $400 flat rate method. In order to deduct more than $400 using the detailed method, Jim would need to have eligible home expenses of ($400 / 5.5%) ~$7,300.

A reminder to contact us if you have questions about your home use percentage or what constitutes and eligible expense. We can work with you to determine if the flat rate method or detailed method is the most applicable to your situation.

Weekly Update – By The Numbers

North America Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
Canada – S&P TSX Composite 18,460 324 1.79% 5.89%
USA – Dow Jones Industrial Average 31,458 310 1.00% 2.78%
USA – S&P 500 3,935 48 1.23% 4.77%
USA – NASDAQ 14,095 239 1.72% 9.37%
Gold Futures (USD) $1,822.20 $11.30 0.62% -4.01%
Crude Oil Futures (USD) $59.60 $2.75 4.84% 22.84%
CAD/USD Exchange Rate $0.7879 $0.0080 1.03% 0.25%
         
Europe / Asia Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
MSCI World Index 2,819 34 1.22% 4.80%
Switzerland – Euro Stoxx 50 3,696 40 1.09% 3.47%
England – FTSE 100 6,590 94 1.45% 2.00%
France – CAC 40 5,704 45 0.80% 2.76%
Germany – DAX Performance Index 14,050 -7 -0.05% 2.41%
Japan – Nikkei 225 29,520 741 2.57% 7.56%
China – Shanghai Composite Index 3,655 159 4.55% 5.24%
CAD/EURO Exchange Rate € 0.6499 -€ 0.0017 -0.26% 1.03%
         
Fixed Income Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
10-Year Bond Yield (in %) 1.2000 0.0830 7.43% 31.00%

 

 

 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, CNBC.com

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TSX declines on vaccine concerns; Wall Street vs “The Little Guys” https://www.you-first.com/tsx-declines-on-vaccine-concerns-wall-street-vs-the-little-guys/ Sat, 30 Jan 2021 01:14:59 +0000 https://mammoth-seashore.flywheelsites.com/?p=7944 This week saw the New York S&P TSX Composite index decline by the most it has in a week since October as investors’ concerns about the vaccine rollout weighed on markets. Markets south of the border saw increased volatility as a battle between Wall Street hedge funds and retail “do it yourself” investors raged. Several trouble... Read More

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This week saw the New York S&P TSX Composite index decline by the most it has in a week since October as investors’ concerns about the vaccine rollout weighed on markets.

Markets south of the border saw increased volatility as a battle between Wall Street hedge funds and retail “do it yourself” investors raged. Several trouble stocks which had been shorted by hedge funds and others saw DIYers engage in a coordinated effort to drive these stock prices upward, leading to a “short squeeze”. The upward and downward sJesskate have been extreme.

These attempts were abated to some extent on Thursday as some online brokerages temporarily halted buys to these companies but Friday saw a return to the wild upward sJesskate for these stocks.

Silver, a precious metal which has been shorted recently, spiked upward on Friday as retail investors turned their attention to those short-sellers. Gold also took part to some extent, riding Silver’s rally to a modest Friday gain. However, both were down for the week.

Weekly Update – By The Numbers

North America Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
Canada – S&P TSX Composite 17,337 -509 -2.85% -0.55%
USA – Dow Jones Industrial Average 29,983 -1,014 -3.27% -2.04%
USA – S&P 500 3,714 -127 -3.31% -1.12%
USA – NASDAQ 13,071 -472 -3.49% 1.42%
Gold Futures (USD) $1,845.90 -$9.80 -0.53% -2.76%
Crude Oil Futures (USD) $52.12 -$0.15 -0.29% 7.42%
CAD/USD Exchange Rate $0.7828 -$0.0079 -1.00% -0.39%
       
Europe / Asia Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
MSCI World Index 2,662 -94 -3.41% -1.04%
Switzerland – Euro Stoxx 50 3,481 -121 -3.36% -2.55%
England – FTSE 100 6,407 -288 -4.30% -0.84%
France – CAC 40 5,399 -161 -2.90% -2.74%
Germany – DAX Performance Index 13,433 -441 -3.18% -2.08%
Japan – Nikkei 225 27,663 -968 -3.38% 0.80%
China – Shanghai Composite Index 3,483 -124 -3.44% 0.29%
CAD/EURO Exchange Rate € 0.6446 -€ 0.0049 -0.75% 0.20%
Fixed Income Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
10-Year Bond Yield (in %) 1.0930 0.0020 0.18% 19.32%

 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, CNBC.com, Globe Investor

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2020 Recap: lessons in long-term investing https://www.you-first.com/2020_recap_lessons_in_long_term_investing/ Fri, 22 Jan 2021 22:17:39 +0000 https://mammoth-seashore.flywheelsites.com/?p=7927 Once in a very great while, there comes a year in the economy and the markets that serve as a tutorial in the principles of successful long-term, goal-focused invest­ing. 2020 was such a year. On December 31, 2019, the Standard & Poor’s 500-Stock index closed at 3,230.78. This past New Year’s Eve, it closed at... Read More

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Once in a very great while, there comes a year in the economy and the markets that serve as a tutorial in the principles of successful long-term, goal-focused invest­ing. 2020 was such a year.

On December 31, 2019, the Standard & Poor’s 500-Stock index closed at 3,230.78. This past New Year’s Eve, it closed at 3,756.07. With reinvested dividends, the total return of the S&P 500 was about 18%.

The equity market had, in 2020, quite a good year. What should be so phenomenally instructive to the long-term investor is how it got there.

From a new all-time high on February 19, the market reacted to the onset of the greatest public health crisis in a century by going down roughly a third in five weeks. The Federal Reserve and Con­gress responded with massive intervention, the economy learned to work around the lockdowns—and the result was that the S&P 500 regained its February high by mid-August.

The lifetime lesson here: At their most dramatic turning points, the economy can’t be forecast, and the market cannot be timed.

This is not meant to dismiss any fears or concerns you may have had last year. Being fearful in the face of a global pandemic and a shutting down of a global economy is quite normal.

Two lessons are worth noting in this regard:

  1. The velocity and upward trajectory of the equity market recovery essentially mir­rored the violence of the February/March decline.
  1. The market went into new high ground in midsummer, even as the pandemic and its economic devastations were still raging. Both outcomes were consistent with historical norms. “Waiting for the pullback” once a market recovery gets under way, and/or waiting for the economic picture to clear before investing, turned out to be formulas for sig­nificant underperformance, as is often the case.

The American economy – and its leading technology companies – contin­ued to demonstrate their fundamental resilience through the bal­ance of the year, such that all three major stock indexes made mul­tiple new highs. Even cash dividends appear on track to exceed those paid in 2019, which was the previous record year.

Meanwhile, several vaccines were developed and approved in record time, and were going into distribution as the year ended. The hope is the most vulnerable segments of the pop­ulation could get the vaccines by spring, and that everyone who wants to be vaccinated can do so by the end of the year, if not sooner.

The second great lifetime lesson of this hugely educational year had to do with the presidential election cycle. To say that it was the most hyper-partisan in living memory wouldn’t adequately express it.

In this event, everyone who exited the market in anticipation of the election sacrificed investment returns. The enduring historical lesson: never get your politics mixed up with your investment policy.

As we look ahead to 2021, there remains far more than enough uncertainty to go around. Is it possible that the economic recovery – and that of corporate earnings – have been largely discounted in soar­ing stock prices, particularly those of the largest growth companies?

Yes, of course it’s possible. Now, how do you and I – as long-term, goal-focused investors – make investment policy out of that possibility? My answer: we don’t, because one can’t. Our strategy, as 2021 dawns, is entirely driven by the same steadfast principles as it was a year ago and will be a year from now: buy quality and diversify. (credit: Odette Morin & Terry Broaders)

We have been assured by the Federal Reserve that it is prepared to hold interest rates near current levels until such time as the economy is functioning at something close to full capacity – per­haps as long as two or three more years.

For investors like us, this makes it difficult to see how we can pursue our long-term goals with fixed income investments. Equi­ties, with their potential for long-term growth of capital – and especially their long-term growth of dividends – seem to us the more rational approach. We therefore tune out “volatility.” We act; we do not react. This was the most effective investment approach in 2020. I believe it always will be.

I look forward to discussing this further with you in our annual review session. Until then, let me thank you again for being my clients. It is a privilege to serve you.

 

 

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The 2020 RRSP Deadline is March 1, 2021: what are your funding options? https://www.you-first.com/the-2020-rrsp-deadline-is-march-1-2021-what-are-your-funding-options/ Fri, 22 Jan 2021 21:07:50 +0000 https://mammoth-seashore.flywheelsites.com/?p=7919 March 1, 2021 is the deadline for contributing to an RRSP for the 2020 tax year. Our office will send out multiple reminders between now and deadline day. Signing your contribution form is easier than ever. With our improved electronic consent procedure, you can now e-sign using your phone in as little as 30 seconds... Read More

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March 1, 2021 is the deadline for contributing to an RRSP for the 2020 tax year. Our office will send out multiple reminders between now and deadline day.

Signing your contribution form is easier than ever. With our improved electronic consent procedure, you can now e-sign using your phone in as little as 30 seconds and without the need to print. Contact us anytime for more information.

There are two ways a purchase can be funded:
 

  1. Pre-Authorized Debit (PAD): If we have your banking information on file, the funds can be taken directly from your chequing account. PADs take a few extra days to set up, but we can use this method right up until deadline day. As long as the request is submitted by the deadline, the investment companies will code the purchase as a first 60-day contribution, even if the funds come out of your account afterwards.
  1. Bill Payment (Nominee accounts only): If you have a Nominee RRSP, you can fund your account via bill payment through your financial institution’s online banking platform. The payee is Fundex Investments and the account # will be your RRSP account number (it starts with an N and contains 9 digits).

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Working from home and employment expenses: which method is best for you? https://www.you-first.com/working-from-home-and-employment-expenses-which-method-is-best-for-you/ Fri, 22 Jan 2021 20:43:42 +0000 https://mammoth-seashore.flywheelsites.com/?p=7907 We would like to provide you with an update on the work-from-home tax saving options available for the 2020 tax year. Those who worked from home in 2020 will have to decide whether to use the $2 a day flat-rate or detailed method.  At tax time, you can use our employment expenses checklist which will... Read More

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We would like to provide you with an update on the work-from-home tax saving options available for the 2020 tax year. Those who worked from home in 2020 will have to decide whether to use the $2 a day flat-rate or detailed method.  At tax time, you can use our employment expenses checklist which will help you list your expenses.

Please click here to view the full CRA details on employment expenses.

Many people, especially renters, will be better off using the detailed method.  For example, if your rent is $2,000 a month, you worked from home for 10 months, and your home-office percentage is 10%, that’s already a $2,000 deduction.

 

The “Flat-Rate” Method

The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) has introduced a temporary “flat-rate” method to calculate your home office expenses for 2020 for employees who worked from home in 2020 due to COVID-19 and paid home office expenses for which they were not reimbursed. If you use this method, your employer is not required to complete form T2200 or T2200S.

The “flat-rate” option will allow you to deduct $2 per day you worked from home, to a maximum $400.  If you worked from home since March and work five days a week, you’ll be able to claim the full $400.

 

The Detailed Method

The detailed method is the standard method for claiming employment expenses. To use the detailed method, you need your employer to complete Form T2200 or the simplified T2200S. You must also itemize your various expenses.

Eligible expenses:

  • rent paid for a house or apartment where you live
  • electricity, heat, water or the utilities portion of your condominium fees
  • home internet access fees
  • maintenance (minor repairs, cleaning supplies, light bulbs, paint, etc.)
  • supplies (stationery items, pens, folders, sticky notes, postage, toner, ink cartridge, etc.)
  • employment use of a basic cell phone service plan
  • long distance calls for employment purposes

If you are a commission employee, you can also claim expenses that reasonably relate to earning commission income for the following:

  • property taxes
  • home insurance
  • lease of a cell phone, computer, laptop, tablet, fax machine, etc.

Non-eligible expenses.  You cannot claim any of the following:

  • capital cost allowance
  • mortgage interest
  • principal mortgage payments
  • home internet connection fees or the portion of fees related to the lease of a modem/router
  • capital expenses (replacing windows, flooring, furnace, etc.)
  • office equipment (printer, fax machine, briefcase, laptop case, or bag, calculator, etc.)
  • monthly basic rate for a landline telephone
  • cell phone connection, or license fees
  • purchase of a cell phone, computer, laptop, tablet, fax machine, etc.
  • computer accessories, (monitor, mouse, keyboard headset, microphone, speakers, webcam, router, etc.)
  • other electronics (television, smart speaker, voice assistant, etc.)
  • furniture (desk, chair, etc.)

Remember that whether you are salaried or commissioned, there is always the possibility that the CRA will request verification of your expense claims, so you will need to keep your receipts for 7 years, just in case. Failure to verify a claim could mean tax owing and interest charges.

 

Conclusion

Again, please note that we will have a specific tax checklist you’ll be able to complete for work-from-home expenses at tax time.

If you are unsure which work-from-home option is best for you, talk to us. We can help you determine how best to proceed.

 

Source: Canada Revenue Agency

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20 Charts for 2021 https://www.you-first.com/20-charts-for-2021/ Fri, 22 Jan 2021 19:55:47 +0000 https://mammoth-seashore.flywheelsites.com/?p=7876 20 Charts for 2021 We have turned the page on a difficult and turbulent 2020. However, there are signs that the current upward market trend can continue. Here are 20 of our favourite charts heading into 2021, organized into the following categories: -2020 Index Returns -Economy -COVID and Sector Returns -Market Analysis -Central Banks and... Read More

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20 Charts for 2021

We have turned the page on a difficult and turbulent 2020. However, there are signs that the current upward market trend can continue. Here are 20 of our favourite charts heading into 2021, organized into the following categories:

-2020 Index Returns
-Economy
-COVID and Sector Returns
-Market Analysis
-Central Banks and Inflation
-Asset allocation and Portfolio Construction

2020 Index Returns

Here are the major index returns for 2020. Most indexes were positive, though there was a large gap between the largest gainers (Nasdaq) and the more modest ones(TSX).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Economy

Report card: Here is an overview of recent positive and negative developments as we turn the page on 2020 and look to 2021. The “interesting” category (items of interest which may end up positive or negative) centers on the new U.S. government with President Biden and the potential of a soft U.S. dollar.

 

Business cycle “reset” due to COVID: Heading into 2020, this chart indicated the U.S. was most likely in a “late cycle” or “end of cycle” phase. COVID changed everything. The two most likely stages at this point are “early cycle” or “start of cycle”, with “recession” a distant 3rd.

 

Turning the corner toward recovery:

 

COVID and Sector Returns

Winners and losers: The two charts below give a quick view of the sector-based winners and losers from the COVID pullback.

 

The impact of technology on 2020 S&P 500 and TSX returns: The overnight creation of a “stay-at-home” economy was great news for tech stocks.

 

Strong year for green energy: Green energy continues to grow its market share and experienced strong returns last year.

 

Market Analysis

U.S. equity valuations to end 2020 increased year-over-year: As we see higher valuations, we should lower return expectations accordingly. Currently, U.S. forward P/E ratios are about 22.33 times earnings, compared to the 25-year average of about 16.3 times earnings. The forward P/E was 19.3 times earnings at the end of 2019.

 

The S&P 500 since 1900: Here we see the steady growth in the S&P 500 since 1900.

 

The S&P 500 and market volatility: Here, we see the major pullbacks the S&P 500 has experienced since 2010 and the subsequent recoveries.

 

U.S. bulls are longer and stronger than bears: Using data going back to The Great Depression, we see that the average S&P 500 bull market is 54 months, and the average total return is 166%, whereas the average bear market lasts 22 months but sees a 42% drop. Once again, the average bull market lasts longer and gains more than the preceding bear market lasts & drops. Note that the COVID-related recession lasted only 1 month and saw a 34% drop.

 

Intra-year declines happen every year, don’t panic! History has shown that a large majority of calendar years see at least one drawdown of 5% or more. Years like 2017, where markets truly head upward with no real speedbumps, are exceedingly rare. It is generally a good idea to ride out the volatility, as markets always rebound given time.

 

Weak outlook for fixed income: With central bank rates at emergency lows, bond yields have followed suit. Medium-term return projections for the fixed-income space are in the low single-digits:

 

Central Banks, Fiscal Stimulus, and Inflation

U.S. Fed made a series of emergency rate cuts: During the first wave, drastic action was taken by the U.S. Fed as they made a series of emergency rate cuts. Currently the Fed’s key rate is 0.25%, as is the Bank of Canada’s key overnight rate. The EU overnight is at 0%.

 

Inflation should be low in the near term but will rise in the long term: When so much money is injected into the overall money supply, rapid inflation becomes a long-term concern.

 

Inflation: Over the next 1-2 years, inflation should remain low but looking at a longer timeline, expect inflation to move upward.

 

Inflation’s impact on market returns: As we see below, the inflation environment has historically influenced where returns are best derived. We are currently in a low inflation environment, and as our previous charts show, we expect inflation to remain low in the near-term, followed by upward movement.

 

Asset Allocation & Portfolio Construction

Can you commit for 10 years? Why does the industry always talk about a “long-term mindset”? The historical worst-case for stocks over any 10-year period since 1950 is -1%.

 

Broad diversification is a great risk-mitigator: If there’s only one chart you want to look at, this is the one. Diversification is one of the best risk mitigation strategies one can undertake.

 

 

Sources: Capital Group, JP Morgan, RBC GAM

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January 2021 E-Newsletter Coming Next Week https://www.you-first.com/january-2021-e-newsletter-coming-next-week/ Fri, 15 Jan 2021 22:48:01 +0000 https://mammoth-seashore.flywheelsites.com/?p=7871 Now that we have flipped the calendar and the holidays are firmly in the rear-view mirror, it is almost time for our annual January e-newsletter. We are hard at work putting together the e-newsletter and are excited to present it to you. The e-newsletter will include a 2021 market outlook, our favourite 21 charts for... Read More

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Now that we have flipped the calendar and the holidays are firmly in the rear-view mirror, it is almost time for our annual January e-newsletter. We are hard at work putting together the e-newsletter and are excited to present it to you.

The e-newsletter will include a 2021 market outlook, our favourite 21 charts for 2021, and a couple of other topical articles.

Markets Down Friday on Lockdown Fears, Rising Coronavirus Cases

Markets were down for the day and most markets were down for the week, as “third wave” cases continue to rise. The possibility of additional lockdown measures added to the daily & weekly decline. For the year, the New York S&P/TSX Composite is up a modest 2.73%.

The Japanese Nikkei 225, the English FTSE 100 and Chinese Shanghai Composite indexes are up by modest amounts as well to start the year. The major U.S. indexes – the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 – are all relatively flat but slightly positive thus far.

 

Weekly Update: By The Numbers

North America Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
Canada – S&P TSX Composite 17,909 -133 -0.74% 2.73%
USA – Dow Jones Industrial Average 30,814 -284 -0.91% 0.68%
USA – S&P 500 3,768 -57 -1.49% 0.32%
USA – NASDAQ 12,999 -203 -1.54% 0.86%
Gold Futures (USD) $1,825.80 -$8.30 -0.45% -3.82%
Crude Oil Futures (USD) $52.16 -$0.08 -0.15% 7.50%
CAD/USD Exchange Rate $0.7846 -$0.0038 -0.48% -0.17%
       
Europe / Asia Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
MSCI World Index 2,715 -38 -1.38% 0.93%
Switzerland – Euro Stoxx 50 3,600 -45 -1.23% 0.78%
England – FTSE 100 6,736 -132 -1.92% 4.26%
France – CAC 40 5,612 -95 -1.66% 1.10%
Germany – DAX Performance Index 13,788 -262 -1.86% 0.50%
Japan – Nikkei 225 28,519 380 1.35% 3.92%
China – Shanghai Composite Index 3,566 -4 -0.11% 2.68%
CAD/EURO Exchange Rate € 0.6500 € 0.0075 1.17% 1.04%
Fixed Income Friday Close Weekly Change Weekly % Change YTD % Change
10-Year Bond Yield (in %) 1.0970 -0.0080 -0.72% 19.76%

 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, CNBC.com, The Globe and Mail

This information is provided for general information purposes only. It does not constitute professional advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs before taking any action.

The post January 2021 E-Newsletter Coming Next Week appeared first on Smof Investment Manager, LLC.

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TSX breaches 18,000 mark for the first time https://www.you-first.com/tsx-breaches-18000-mark-for-the-first-time/ Sat, 09 Jan 2021 00:34:35 +0000 https://mammoth-seashore.flywheelsites.com/?p=7864 The S&P TSX Composite started 2021 by passing the 18,000 mark for the first time. For the week, the TSX closed at 18,042. The TSX appeared poised to hit 18,000 last February. On February 20, 2020, the TSX closed at an all-time high of 17,944. We all know what happened next. Since the market bottom... Read More

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The S&P TSX Composite started 2021 by passing the 18,000 mark for the first time. For the week, the TSX closed at 18,042. The TSX appeared poised to hit 18,000 last February. On February 20, 2020, the TSX closed at an all-time high of 17,944. We all know what happened next.

Since the market bottom in March 2020, the TSX has now risen over 60%. In the process, the index erased the last remnants of the COVID-related market losses.

Canada’s tech and materials sectors have performed well through the recovery while financials and energy have struggled.

Looking forward, cheap money via low interest rates should help the index continue moving upward, though we should expect some bumps along the way.

2020: By The Numbers

North America 2020 Start 2020 Finish 2020 % Change
Canada – S&P TSX Composite 17,063 17,433 2.17%
USA – Dow Jones Industrial Average 28,538 30,606 7.25%
USA – S&P 500 3,231 3,756 16.25%
USA – NASDAQ 8,973 12,888 43.63%
Gold Futures (USD) $1,520.00 $1,898.36 24.89%
Crude Oil Futures (USD) $61.21 $48.52 -20.73%
CAD/USD Exchange Rate $0.77 $0.79 2.06%
   
Europe / Asia 2020 Start 2020 Finish 2020 % Change
MSCI World Index 2,358 2,690 14.08%
Switzerland – Euro Stoxx 50 3,748 3,572 -4.70%
England – FTSE 100 7,556 6,461 -14.49%
France – CAC 40 5,978 5,551 -7.14%
Germany – DAX Performance Index 13,249 13,719 3.55%
Japan – Nikkei 225 23,657 27,444 16.01%
China – Shanghai Composite Index 3,050 3,473 13.87%
CAD/EURO Exchange Rate € 0.69 € 0.64 -6.28%
Fixed Income 2020 Start 2020 Finish 2020 % Change
10-Year Bond Yield (in %) 1.919 0.916 -52.27%

 

Sources: TDAM, Yahoo! Finance, The Globe and Mail

This information is provided for general information purposes only. It does not constitute professional advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs before taking any action.

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